2010 Bordeaux - Fun With Numbers

Now that the 2010 Bordeaux campaign has taken off, the consumer is left with a decision to make – support the high prices or walk away.

I am in the later group...which may seem odd considering I’ve been a proponent of watching the potential of this top vintage play-out since last summer (when the grapes were still on the vine).

My reasons are too numerous to rehash (they are in various articles you should be able to search for) but I will add a few additional new cards to the table that many of you will find to be interesting.

For one, in general, 2010 is a vintage of elevation – everything is elevated – extract, tannin, acidity, color and presence. It is also a vintage where Cabernet dominates (both Sauvignon and Franc) with only those willing to go through a painstaking process with their Merlot were able to make fabulous wine from the varietal (see: 2010 Lafleur, a beverage that has a chance to be a 50 year wine - Jacques Guinaudeau opened a 2005 Lafleur for me side-by-side to see if I could draw similarities with the dry extract of 2005 and 2010 – it wasn't even close – 2010 had more brute strength but I still preferred 2005...and so did he – that is a lesson you can take to the bank nearly everywhere in Bordeaux).

As I’ve said many times, 2010 is potentially a grand modern year in Bordeaux – modern being the key word. The vintage sums up where the Bordelaise have been heading for the last few decades and puts a nice cherry on top of their extract machine goals ushered in with the 1985 Lynch Bages. 2010 gives exaggerated elements everywhere you turn – like last year’s fun house 2009’s filled with a fraternity of muscle men looking for a 98lb weakling to squash...yet, somehow many of the best wines retain the singularity that only Aquitaine can provide. 2010 is a hybrid of what the Bordelaise have been looking for all these years - Napa circa 1987-1995 mixed with the acidity, mineral tone and reserved tannic clout of Bordeaux (versus last years 2009’s, which are more of a hybrid of 1997 in Napa with the present).

In a laboratory, that may be well and good but, in real life...maybe not.

While there is so much to admire with 2010 if you veer toward heavily structured and masculine wines (a la 1986 Left Bank with riper tannins) there is also that darned “modern” word to complicate things. In 2010, the Bordelaise have used more new oak than ever before, have accepted higher alcohol levels than ever before (due to a warmer climate than 1986) and have uttered the phrase “they’ll just need time in bottle” more than ever before. That may prove to be true, but alcohol never dissipates, fruit does.

One of the reasons I try to temper an overall opinion of a vintage before it ends up in bottle (despite early enthusiasm) is that you never know what is going to happen to it – you can never be quite sure how it will be mucked up or altered while in barrel. In 2010, this proclivity has too many roads it can venture down for my taste. Due to such elevated, well, everything – many of the wines may drop fruit along the way while their massive tannins remain. Many the opposite – the luxurious fruit extract may end up overwhelming the balance.

2010 is truly a “wait and see” year – I still like the vintage an awful lot, but I’d like to wait and see what happens to the year when it is in bottle, not barrel.

Don’t worry, there will be plenty of 2010s available when the time comes.

As a side note, I also find it humorous that those intent on flogging 2010 futures have conveniently left Tanzer off their vintage scoring charts as the IWC’s Ian d’Agata penned an excellent review but it was not really what the doctor ordered for moving vast amounts of wine through the pipeline. After purchasing 2010 Gazin futures based on Bob’s review (WA93-95), I'm sure there was a simultaneous groan around the retail world as the IWC debuted a week later (2010 Gazin - IWC86-89)...and then there is the ultimate Bordeaux nightmare - John Gilman (A View From the Cellar) – one of the last gasps of classicism we have left in American wine journalism (next to David S. and a few others). If you do not subscribe to A View From the Cellar, you are doing yourself a major disservice – you cannot glean a well-rounded perspective on wine without at least one contrarian voice (other than mine) - be it Jancis, Gilman or other. By only reading what you hope to hear (i.e. The Wine Advocate), it does very little for your overall understanding of the subject. By reading more “that can't possibly be true?” tasting notes before purchasing, it gives the reader and collector something to chew on...literally (to add further ugly fuel to the 2010 Gazin example above, Gilman scored it 80-84+).

Just for fun, here is a snippet of a 2010 Bordeaux comparison score chart that takes into account a varied perspective, including the contrarians – it makes you think just a bit more before purchase, doesn’t it? If we take into account my theory that Neil Martin’s scores are really the only ones that matter for the investor, maybe this is a moot point – the odds are that Neil’s reviews will dictate a good percentage of the auction market down the road as it appears he is headed toward filling the WA labeled Bordeaux shoes of his boss. That is very good news for the Bordelaise (as you can see below) – maybe they will give Parker another medal of honor for not choosing John Gilman as his heir apparent.

In truth, if Bob really wished to have an affect on the pricing and overall sanity of a Bordeaux market gone crazy, one he helped establish (not of his own fault, of course) maybe he should have picked Gilman instead?

A sample of 2010 Bordeaux: Vintage Score Chart

2010 Gazin (WA93-95) (IWC86-89) (JG80-84+) (NM94-95)

2010 Beychevelle (WA90-92) (IWC88-91) (JG92) (NM94-96)

2010 Clinet (WA95-98) (IWC88-91) (JG82) (NM94-95)

2010 Pavie (WA95-98+) (IWC93-96) (JG47-52+) (NM93-96?)

2010 Leoville Poyferre (WA95-98) (IWC90-93) (JG82) (NM93-95)

A contrarian point of view is at least cause for pause – and that’s what everyone should be doing prior to being swept up in the 2010 futures game. By taking a step back and thinking it over, you may rush to better judgment rather than just rushing.

- Jon Rimmerman, May 19, 2011